Why Federal Reserve rate cuts won't matter as much this time

There has already been a "stealth easing" that no one is talking about

Equity markets continued to sell off on Monday prompting continued calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Combined with the dismal jobs report on Friday, the selloff has also soured the outlook for a “soft landing.” Economist Mohamed El-Erian echoed the opinions of many others that the Fed held interest rates too high for too long, thus failing to prevent a recession and sharp stock market correction.

Putting aside the free market objections to the Fed being involved in manipulating interest rates – or existing at all – this analysis is useless at best for several reasons.

First, Fed rate cuts always come “too late” in the business cycle to prevent market crashes and recessions. Looking back at Fed open market operations history, one can see that even when the Fed had been cutting rates for over a year, as it had been prior to the 2008 crash, it did not prevent the bubble it had previously blown up from popping.

There are several reasons why the Fed will always be “too late.” The first is fundamental. While the Fed is holding interest rates artificially low, malinvestment is occurring. Capital is being directed towards projects that aren’t really profitable at market interest rates. These can include unwarranted expansion of otherwise profitable business ventures or capitalization of projects that shouldn’t be launched at all (see “Pets.com” from the 2000 dotcom crash).

At some point, the reality of unprofitable investments fueled by unsustainable debt asserts itself and those malinvestments must be undone. The market overcomes the efforts of the Fed and liquidates unprofitable ventures, unsustainable debt, and, unfortunately, millions of jobs that never should have been created in the first place. All of the above must be redirected towards better use, which takes time. That period of reallocation is called a recession.

It should be noted that even the Fed’s efforts to avoid recessions with monetary policy are wrongheaded. What it attempts to do with interest rate policy and monetary inflation is keep inefficient, unprofitable businesses alive. These are sometimes called “zombie companies” because they aren’t really viable going concerns. They are only able to keep operating because the Fed creates conditions under which they can borrow money at artificially low rates.

Regardless, economic laws are like forces of nature. They always win in the end, often immediately after supposed experts announce their demise. Recall Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s 2008 reassurance that “subprime is contained” or President Bill Clinton’s triumphant 2000 declaration that “we’ve ended the business cycle.”

This time around, Fed rate cuts may have even less chance of achieving the mythical “soft landing.” That’s because part of what used to be part and parcel of rate cuts has already been done, namely monetary inflation or as it is now euphemistically called, “quantitative easing.”

Prior to 2008, the Fed achieved rate cuts by purchasing government debt securities in open market operations. This simultaneously added new dollars to the economy and drove down interest rates. The latter was simply supply and demand. A greater supply of money meant its price – interest rates – declined. Conversely, when the Fed wanted to raise interest rates, it sold securities to its member banks, decreasing the supply of money.

Since the 2008 crisis, the Fed doesn’t manage interest rates that way anymore. Because its member banks built up huge deposits at the Fed, for which the Fed paid them interest, it could now manipulate interest rates by simply changing the rate it paid its member banks. This effectively separated interest rate policy from the creation of new dollars or the destruction of existing ones.

The Fed’s response to the 2008 crisis was twofold. It forced interest rates down to near-zero by lowering the rate it paid on deposits and added trillions of new dollars to the economy by purchasing government and mortgage-backed securities. It promised at the time to unwind the vast expansion of its balance sheet – from less than $1 trillion to over $4 trillion – when the “once in a lifetime crisis” was over.

But after unwinding only a small fraction of that increase 2018-19 coupled with modest interest rate increases, the Fed increased its balance sheet to just under $9 trillion and took interest rates back to the zero bound in 2020.

This is where it gets complicated. Conventional wisdom says the Fed began “tightening” in 2022 with the first in a series of interest rate increases in March and reduction of its balance sheet later in the year. Indeed, the Fed did eventually raise the federal funds rate to over 5% (where it remains today) and reduce its balance sheet from a peak of $8.9 trillion to about $7.2 trillion as of this writing.

However, the balance sheet reduction is not the tightening it appears to be. That is because even though the Fed has reduced its balance sheet and the M2 money supply has decreased slightly from its 2022 high, a “stealth easing” has been occurring that no one is really talking about.